A boreal invasion in response to climate change? Range shifts and community effects in the borderland between forest and tundra

It has been hypothesized that climate warming will allow southern species to advance north and invade northern ecosystems. We review the changes in the Swedish mammal and bird community in boreal forest and alpine tundra since the nineteenth century, as well as suggested drivers of change. Observed changes include (1) range expansion and increased abundance in southern birds, ungulates, and carnivores; (2) range contraction and decline in northern birds and carnivores; and (3) abundance decline or periodically disrupted dynamics in cyclic populations of small and medium-sized mammals and birds. The first warm spell, 1930–1960, stands out as a period of substantial faunal change. However, in addition to climate warming, suggested drivers of change include land use and other anthropogenic factors. We hypothesize all these drivers interacted, primarily favoring southern generalists. Future research should aim to distinguish between effects of climate and land-use change in boreal and tundra ecosystems.     

Complex and nonlinear climate-driven changes in freshwater insect communities over 42 years

The ongoing biodiversity crisis becomes evident in the widely observed decline in abundance and diversity of species, profound changes in community structure, and shifts in species’ phenology. Insects are among the most affected groups, with documented decreases in abundance up to 76% in the last 25–30 years in some terrestrial ecosystems. Identifying the underlying drivers is a major obstacle as most ecosystems are affected by multiple stressors simultaneously and in situ measurements of environmental variables are often missing. In our study, we investigated a headwater stream belonging to the most common stream type in Germany located in a nature reserve with no major anthropogenic impacts except climate change. We used the most comprehensive quantitative long-term data set on aquatic insects available, which includes weekly measurements of species-level insect abundance, daily water temperature and stream discharge as well as measurements of additional physicochemical variables for a 42-year period (1969–2010). Overall, water temperature increased by 1.88 °C and discharge patterns changed significantly. These changes were accompanied by an 81.6% decline in insect abundance, but an increase in richness (+8.5%), Shannon diversity (+22.7%), evenness (+22.4%), and interannual turnover (+34%). Moreover, the community's trophic structure and phenology changed: the duration of emergence increased by 15.2 days, whereas the peak of emergence moved 13.4 days earlier. Additionally, we observed short-term fluctuations (<5 years) in almost all metrics as well as complex and nonlinear responses of the community toward climate change that would have been missed by simply using snapshot data or shorter time series. Our results indicate that climate change has already altered biotic communities severely even in protected areas, where no other interacting stressors (pollution, habitat fragmentation, etc.) are present. This is a striking example of the scientific value of comprehensive long-term data in capturing the complex responses of communities toward climate change.     

Effects of size and nuptial gifts on butterfly reproduction: can females compensate for a smaller size through male-derived nutrients?

In butterflies and other insects, fecundity generally increases with female adult weight. Hence, most butterflies are essentially "capital breeders", because nutrients acquired during the larval stage are stored and subsequently used for egg production during the adult stage. However, in some species, males transfer a large nutritious ejaculate to the female at mating. These females can partly be characterized as "income breeders", and female mass can potentially be decoupled from fecundity to some extent. In the gift-giving green-veined white butterfly Pieris napi, it has been shown that female fecundity and longevity increase with number of matings and also that females mature at smaller size under poor food conditions compared to males. So it has been suggested that females can compensate for their smaller size through nuptial feeding. Here we test this hypothesis in P. napi by assessing female fecundity and longevity in relation to female mass and polyandry. The results showed no support for the hypothesis. Smaller females were not capable of increasing their mating rate to compensate for a low weight at eclosion. Instead, larger females remated sooner. Also, smaller females suffered from both a reduced daily and total fecundity compared to larger females and this decrease in fecundity was independent of female mating status, i.e. females allowed to mate only once and multiply mated females suffered to the same extent from their smaller size.     

Local governance of greenhouse gas emissions from air travel

Global greenhouse gas emissions from air travel (GHG-A) are on the rise, and projections point towards a rapid growth in the coming decades. This study aims to examine how local government (cities), addresses GHG-A in their Sustainable Energy Action Plans (SEAP). To fulfil this aim, over 200 SEAPs were analysed focusing on three issues: (1) Treatment of GHG-A in local emissions inventories; (2) Policy initiatives within this domain; and (3) The cities’ perceptions of the conflicts of interests. Results showed that more than half of the cities acknowledge the challenge of GHG-A, around one third include GHG-A in their emissions inventories, and more than one quarter have initiated policy interventions. To categorise these interventions, we have added a mode ‘governing by agenda setting’ to an existing analytical framework, ‘Modes of governing’. With their authority limited to the local setting, this mode of governing is a common channel for cities to push changes at higher levels.     

The adoption of a Climate Disaster Resilience Index in Chennai,India

Results derived from the Climate Disaster Resilience Index (CDRI)—consisting of five dimensions (economic, institutional, natural, physical, and social), 25 parameters, and 125 variables—reflect the abilities of people and institutions to respond to potential climate‐related disasters in Chennai, India. The findings of this assessment, applied in the 10 administrative zones of the city, reveal that communities living in the northern and older parts of Chennai have lower overall resilience as compared to the flourishing areas (vis‐à‐vis economic growth and population) along the urban fringes. The higher resilience of communities along the urban fringes suggests that urbanisation may not necessarily lead to a deterioration of basic urban services, such as electricity, housing, and water. This indication is confirmed by a strong statistical correlation between physical resilience and population growth in Chennai. The identification of the resilience of different urban areas of Chennai has the potential to support future planning decisions on the city's scheduled expansion.     

Abundance of harbour porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) in the western Baltic,Belt Seas and Kattegat

In July 2012, a ship-board double-platform line-transect survey was conducted to assess harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) abundance in the Kattegat, Belt Seas and the Western Baltic. A total of 826 km of track lines were surveyed between the 2nd and 21st of July 2012, and 169 observations were made by the primary observers, comprising a total of 230 porpoises. Fifty-seven observations were identified as duplicate sightings observed by both tracker and primary observers and were used to correct for availability and perception bias of the primary detections. Using Mark–Recapture Distance Sampling analysis, we produced a model using the half-normal key function, including sightability as the only covariate to estimate the density and abundance of harbour porpoise within the 51,511 km² survey area. Estimated detection probability on the transect line, known as g(0), was at 0.571 (±0.074; CV = 0.130). Using a point independence model of the detection function, the abundance of harbour porpoises within the survey area was estimated at 40,475 animals (95 % CI 25,614–65,041, CV = 0.235) with an associated density of 0.786 animals km^?2 (95 % CI 0.498–1.242, CV = 0.235) and an average group size of 1.488 animals. These results reflect densities obtained during the SCANS surveys in 1994 and 2005, indicating no significant population trend in the area. However, it should be noted that the survey area covers more than one population and that results are therefore not necessarily reflecting local population trends. Until proper population borders are obtained, the abundance estimate provides baseline data for future monitoring and is an important input to the assessment of the conservation status of harbour porpoises in the area.     

Fitting complex population models by combining particle filters with Markov chain Monte Carlo

We show how a recent framework combining Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with particle filters (PFMCMC) may be used to estimate population state-space models. With the purpose of utilizing the strengths of each method, PFMCMC explores hidden states by particle filters, while process and observation parameters are estimated using an MCMC algorithm. PFMCMC is exemplified by analyzing time series data on a red kangaroo (Macropus rufus) population in New South Wales, Australia, using MCMC over model parameters based on an adaptive Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. We fit three population models to these data; a density-dependent logistic diffusion model with environmental variance, an unregulated stochastic exponential growth model, and a random-walk model. Bayes factors and posterior model probabilities show that there is little support for density dependence and that the random-walk model is the most parsimonious model. The particle filter Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is a brute-force method that may be used to fit a range of complex population models. Implementation is straightforward and less involved than standard MCMC for many models, and marginal densities for model selection can be obtained with little additional effort. The cost is mainly computational, resulting in long running times that may be improved by parallelizing the algorithm.     

Grazer avoidance may explain the invasiveness of the red alga Gracilaria vermiculophylla in Scandinavian waters

The invasive red alga Gracilaria vermiculophylla has quickly spread across Europe, but it is unclear whether its success is based on a high tolerance to variations in environmental conditions or to the absence of native grazers that feed on this alga. We tested whether native invertebrate grazers prefer native algae to G. vermiculophylla. Feeding preferences of three common herbivores were quantified when offered G. vermiculophylla and native Fucus vesiculosus, Ceramium virgatum, and Ulva intestinalis in no-, two- and multiple-choice trials. Herbivore growth was measured when fed each of the algae separately. Grazers consumed G. vermiculophylla in no-choice trials, but avoided generally this alga when having a choice. U. intestinalis was always preferred over G. vermiculophylla, and grazers fed with U. intestinalis grew faster than those fed with G. vermiculophylla. We conclude that grazers avoid G. vermiculophylla to most native algae, which may benefit G. vermiculophylla in northern European estuaries.